What is the Kigali Amendment and India's HFC phase-down schedule?
From ozone treaty to climate treaty
The Montreal Protocol was built to close the ozone hole; Kigali retooled it for climate. HFCs — the replacements for CFCs and HCFCs — contain no chlorine and have zero ozone-depletion potential, but their global-warming potentials run into the thousands. The 2016 Kigali Amendment added HFCs to the Protocol's control system as Annex F substances, with GWP values fixed to IPCC AR4 so quotas are counted in CO₂-equivalent terms.
India's exact schedule
| Milestone | Year | Requirement (vs baseline) |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline period | 2024–2026 | Avg HFC consumption + 65% of HCFC baseline |
| Freeze | 2028 | Cap at baseline |
| Step 1 | 2032 | −10% |
| Step 2 | 2037 | −20% |
| Step 3 | 2042 | −30% |
| Plateau | 2047 | −85% |
Group 2 (India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, the Gulf states) runs several years behind Article 5 Group 1 and far behind developed countries, which froze in 2019 — recognition of hot-climate cooling demand and later industrialization. Note the end state: a phase-down to 15% of baseline, not zero; a permanent sliver remains for servicing and niche uses.
What is actually being counted
The controlled quantity is CO₂-equivalent tonnes: each HFC's mass × its AR4 GWP (all values on our GWP reference page). That design decides winners. A tonne of R-404A (GWP 3,922) consumes almost six times the quota of a tonne of R-32 (GWP 675) — so as the ceiling bites, high-GWP refrigerants get squeezed first and the market migrates down the GWP ladder well ahead of any ban.
What Indian buyers should plan for
Until 2028 nothing is capped; R-32, R-410A, R-134a and R-404A remain fully legal and freely supplied (they are not banned — see phase-down vs phase-out). From the freeze onward, expect gradual price pressure on high-GWP gases — R-404A most exposed, R-134a already tariff-affected by the 2025 anti-dumping duty — while R-32 equipment keeps gaining share. New plant decisions with a 15-year life should already weigh Kigali-era refrigerant availability; our price-impact guide covers the mechanics.
Why India's baseline formula matters more than it looks
The clause 'average HFC consumption for 2024–2026 plus 65% of the HCFC baseline' is easy to skim and important to understand. The HCFC component imports a fixed, historical quantity — 65% of the 1,608.20 ODP-tonne-era baseline, converted to CO₂-equivalent terms — into the HFC ceiling, in recognition that Article 5 Group 2 economies are still mid-transition out of HCFCs and will shift that demand into HFCs precisely during the baseline window. Two consequences follow. First, the 2024–2026 window is consequential: consumption recorded in these three years permanently shapes India's ceiling, which is one reason quota design, data collection and sector surveys intensified through the mid-2020s. Second, the formula cushions the freeze: because the ceiling includes the HCFC allowance, the 2028 freeze does not bite from day one for every gas equally — the pressure builds through the 2032 and 2037 steps, exactly the gradual profile a hot-climate, cooling-hungry economy negotiated for. NRDC's December 2025 pathway analysis estimates the resulting baseline at roughly 72.8 MtCO₂e — flagged as an estimate until an official gazetted figure exists, and worth re-checking once the 2024–2026 data is finalised. For buyers, the takeaway is timing: the schedule's teeth are real but arrive on a published calendar, so equipment and stocking decisions can front-run each step rather than react to it.
- Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol (2016), Annex F — UNEP Ozone Secretariat — ozone.unep.org.
- NRDC, "India's HFC Phase-Down Pathways" (Dec 2025): A5 Group 2 baseline = average HFC 2024–2026 + 65% of HCFC baseline; freeze 1 Jan 2028; reductions 2032–2047 — nrdc.org.
- India Ozone Cell — HFC phase-down workshop materials — ozonecell.nic.in.
This guide is general information compiled from the cited sources — not legal, safety or engineering advice. Read our full disclaimer.
Related: Are HFCs banned in India? · GWP values · Price impact